, Tracking Stock Market Picks
Enter Symbol:
Harley-davidson, Inc. (HOG) [hlAlert]

3 Months Gains
up 27.50 %

Removing HOG from Top Picks Live

Posted on: Monday,  May 26, 2008  3:42 PM ET by Citi Investment Research Top Picks Live for 2008

Why Now? —We believe that 1Q08 trends have stabilized somewhat. Our dealer checks indicate U.S. retail sales were down 5-8% in Jan/Feb 08 - we think trends improved in Feb. vs Jan. We note that March is a more important month representing about 45-50% of 1Q sales. We expect continued strong international retail sales similar
as last quarter (up 17.4% in 4Q07). The
weakening US dollar should continue to benefit HOG's international business.
? Risk/Reward — The risk is that retail trends may continue to weaken at HOG
causing inventories to build. HOG may then lower its production numbers. If
this occurs, HOG may not be able to achieve its 2008 guidance of modest
revenue growth and 4-7% EPS growth.
? Bottom Line — The shares of HOG as well as its forward P/E multiple are both
trading near 5 year lows. The stock may not have that much more downside to
our $34 price tgt. We are removing HOG from our Top Picks Live list.

Harley-Davidson,Inc. operates in two segments: the Motorcycles & Related Products (Motorcycles) segment and the Financial Services segment. The Motorcycles segment includes the group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), Buell Motorcycle Company (Buell) and MV Agusta (MV). The Motorcycles segment designs, manufactures and sells at wholesale primarily heavyweight (engine displacement of 651+cubic centimeters) touring, custom and performance motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise and related services. The Financial Services segment includes the group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). HDFS provides wholesale and retail financing and, as an agent, provides insurance and insurance-related programs primarily to Harley-Davidson and Buell dealers and their retail customers. HDFS conducts business in the United States and Canada. In August 2008,it acquired MV Agusta Group.

Citi Investment Research (CIR) Top Picks for 2008 represents the most compelling investment ideas from our U.S.-based security analysts; with 58 Buy- or Sell-rated stocks in all.
Stock Market Advice
Date/Time (ET)SymbolRatingTermPrice (*)Target
3/14/2008 4:00 PM None
as of 12/24/2008
1 Week   
1 Month   
3 Months   
1 YTD up  3.43 %
Previous Recommendations
Date/Time (ET)SymbolRatingTermPrice (*)Target
1/3/2008 4:00 PM Sell
1 year

(*) Stock Price at the time of the recommendation.
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